The Pros And Cons of a War With Iran

The Scene around Iran

Some time back the U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta made a significant observation. He stated that Iran was close to acquiring nuclear weapons. Obviously Leon Panetta is a knowledgeable person and knows what he is talking about. The stage is thus set for a conflict. Western and Middle East intelligence experts suspect that Iran needs these Nuclear weapons for the furtherance of the Iranian brand of Islam and domination in its region. The Iranian aims possibly are

1) Destroy the state of Israel;

2) Spread the Iranian form of Islam (Shia) all over the Middle East

3) Destroy the USA which is considered as the great Satan and establish Iran’s leadership in the Middle East and the rest of the world.

It was anticipated that the main target of Iran, the state of Israel would launch a pre-emptive strike to stop Iran from achieving nuclear status. The USA was to provide the logistics for the operation and also keep the Strait of Hormuz navigable. Iran’s plan to choke to Strait of Hormuz that transports some 15 million barrels of oil everyday was to be negated by the US Navy. But this has not happened so far and as such one of the cardinals Principle of war, decisive and early action is not followed.

There are many writers who have been talking of a war with Iran and its eventual defeat as a biblical prophecy. This is arrant nonsense and the fact is that the conflict with Iran will not be decided by any Biblical prophecy. Israel on its own will not be able to subdue Iran. However efficient the Israel defense forces are, the numbers are heavily stacked against them. In addition Israel is in hostile lands with not a single friend to rely on in the Middle East. Egypt and Turkey have also forsaken Israel. Thus Israel has to bank on Uncle Sam and the NATO to subdue Iran. Here is the catch, will the USA intervene? Obama is a prudent man, who had opposed the Iraq war. Will he get into the war zone as the drum beats get louder?

There is also the question of Russia. But I suspect the Russians are not too happy with a nuclear armed Iran and may just shut their eyes for a short duration. The war with Iran has to be swift. Speed is of essence and no time can be lost. The Principles of Clausewitz must be followed in case victory is to be achieved over Iran.